An interesting view on the future of BPM can be deduced from IDC’s new research document: “Worldwide Application Development and Deployment: 2010 Predictions”
1. 2010 Kicks Off Transformation in Consumer-Based PC Application Platforms Heralded by the Popularity of Mobile Applications and New Form Factors
2. BPM Vendors with Strong Integration Capabilities Will Gain Share over BPM Suites That Focus on Standalone Process Applications
3. Vendors Rationalize Their Public and Private Cloud Positions
4. 2010 Will See Continued Coalescing of Several Functional Software Markets into a Single Competitive Market for Portals, Collaboration, Content Management, and Search
5. Compliance Will Drive Growth in the Areas of Modeling, Software Life-Cycle Management, SOA, and Enterprise Data Management
6. Configuration-Based Development Becomes an Important New Pattern for Application Development
7. Users Will Increasingly Adopt Both Agile Development Processes and the Collaboration Benefits of Social Media and Social Networking into ALM Tools
8. Companies Will Continue to Use More Open Source Software Products and Components as a Result of Economics and Moving Past the Tipping Point
9. Nonschematic DBMSs Will Post Tens of Millions of Dollars in Software Revenue
10. Decisioning Products Will Be Unified to Deliver a Decision Management Platform
For comparison, their 2009 predictions:
1. Open Source Tools Disrupt Commercial License and Revenue Streams
2. AD&D Revenue Suffers by Shifts of Tactical Mission-Critical Revenue to Business Services and BPO Platforms
3. 2009 Marks a Pivotal Move Away from J2EE Toward Lighter-Weight Languages and Frameworks
4. Pressure on IT Spend and the Struggle for Survival on the Supply Side Will Lead to a Blending of Software and Service Offerings to a Greater Degree than Ever Before
5. 2009 Will Be a Traumatic Year for Pricing Models, Discounting Levels, and the Sacred Maintenance Revenue Stream
6. Everything “as a Service” Drives Flood of Online Development, Deployment, and Infrastructure Offerings in the Cloud
7. Mobile Application Development Platforms Experience an Explosion of Activity
8. Development Tool Product Selection Contingent on Skill Sets of Remaining IT and Business Users
9. GRC-Driven Revenue Persists Despite Wholesale Slowdown in AD&D
10. Web 2.0 Trends Redefine Application User Experiences with New Workspace Capabilities
Adam Deane 
Maybe #11 should be “analysts will start getting their annual predictions published before the year is half over”
By: Sandy Kemsley on 07/05/2010
at 1:43 pm