Once upon a time, there was a little girl named Goldilocks.
She went for a walk in the forest.
Pretty soon, she came upon a house. She knocked and, when no one answered, she walked right in.

On the table in the kitchen, there were three bowls of porridge, but Goldilocks wasn’t interested in the porridge, nor the IKEA chairs, nor the beds.

She went straight up to the computer room.
“This server’s security system is too hard!” she exclaimed.

So she checked out Mummy Bear’s server.
“This server is too slow,” she said.

Then she checked out the Baby Bear server.
“Ahhh, this server is just right,” she said happily and she started installing the software on it.

After she’d finished installing she decided to wait for the three bears, so she walked into an empty boardroom, put her feet up and started checking out her emails.

Just as she got to the last email, the three bears came home.

“Nobody’s been eating my porridge,” growled the Papa Bear.

“Nobody’s touched my porridge either” said the Mama bear. “What? My cooking is not good enough for them?”

“The chairs and beds are ok, but there is a light blinking on one of the servers!” reported Baby Bear.

The three bears rushed into the server room, but it was too late.
The software had already been installed. Another silo of information in the organisation.
“Confound it! That’s the seventh BPM system we’ve purchased” growled the Papa bear. “Why can’t the business users work with just one system?”. I’ll process their backside with my foot if they bypass us again!

Goldilocks got such a fright that she jumped up and ran all the way back to her office.

“Another consultant that we probably won’t hear from again” growled Papa bear.

“She should have tasted the porridge before she left” mumbled Mama bear.
I’m sure there’s nothing wrong with my cooking…

On BPM and Customer-facing Processes – Ann All

As useful as business process management has been in helping companies improve and streamline their internal processes, I think it holds even more promise as a way for them to perform the same kind of magic on their customer-facing processes.

On BPM and Custom Applications – Evan McDonnell

Most insurers invested heavily in custom designed applications to systematize their processes. This proved to be a good path, at first. But the high cost of maintenance has turned those custom applications into money pits. Worse yet, their lack of flexibility is stifling innovation, preventing insurance providers from rapidly adapting to market changes, and making them easy targets for competitors.

On BPM and ROI – Chris Taylor

With lots of cynicism around ROI calculations, selling a change without being able to get specific about the benefits and cost is very hard. “We’re going to do things better” isn’t a very convincing argument. Quantifying things that don’t have cost savings or market capture dollars attached is very hard, and BPM needs to be more than reduced cost.

On BPM and Compliance – Anthony Murphy

I often think that being a Compliance officer is very similar to providing an IT service provider, in that senior people only want to talk to you when something goes wrong. Within IT and the wider business a considerable amount of effort is spent measuring and proving compliance with stated business processes, regulatory and legislative rules, and client instructions.

On Social and Analytics in Processes – Connie Moore

Very few BPM practitioners understand how to use analytical tools like next best action, and very few data pros understand business processes. The biggest challenge isn’t to extend social and analytics for process execution; that can be done. The challenge is to find people who know how to put data and process together. Once you tackle the skills and add social and analytics to process automation, the insights you gain about your customers, products, and competitors and factor into your processes could expand exponentially.

On BPM and Change – Jaisundar

Much the same way, I like to think employees really do not have a fundamental disagreement to the reasons why they need that ‘change’ that is being introduced – that new software, those process changes, those revised roles and responsibilities, those new user interfaces. It may not be any of those at all. It may really be that ‘jarring’ effect of stepping out of one comfort zone into a new zone that they need to warm up to all over again.

We had an audit a couple of weeks ago. The scariest kind of audit.
I’m not speaking about a finance audit or a government audit.
Oh no… much worse than that…

One of my colleagues brought in his daughter to the office as part of the “What does dad do” school project.

You know the feeling you get when your whole career is scrutinized and turned upside down by a thirteen year old?

Think about a whole TV crew coming in to film you. Worse.
… “so basically you sit and drink coffee all day”…. well…. basically…. yes

Now we work in software. Glamorise it as much as you want. We sit around clicking at keyboards and drinking coffee.

I remember when I was a kid and went to my Dad’s workplace.
I was taken around the chocolate factory for a tour. Lucky me. That day a tonne chocolate cube arrived and I was “allowed” to break a chunk of chocolate off.
That memory of me walking around a factory with a great chunk of chocolate in my hand has stuck with me since.

How do you explain BPM? I still found it quite a challenge.
After years in the BPM industry I still find it hard to explain what is it that I do.
I’m not talking about defining BPM. A thirteen year old doesn’t understand high level blabbering like holistic, assets, agile or efficiency. And unlike grown-ups they aren’t afraid to tell you that it sounds like hogwash,

So how do you explain BPM to a thirteen year old?

Yossarian: We need the process improved.

Doc: There’s nothing wrong with it.

Yossarian: Do me a favor Doc, look at it once, will you?

Doc: Yossarian, the process is OK.

Yossarian: Please, don’t say that. We need it improved.

Doc: Don’t start that again.

Yossarian: Start what?

Doc: You can only improve a process that can be improved.

Yossarian: How do I know if it can be improved?

Doc: You can’t

Yossarian: I can’t?

Doc: Only after improving a process, can you know for certain that it could have been improved.

Yossarian: What about simulation? I could use simulation.

Doc: Simulation is useless unless you know what you’re looking for.

Yossarian: What am I looking for?

Doc: A process to improve.

Yossarian: That’s all I gotta do?

Doc: Yes.

Yossarian: And then you I can improve it?

Doc: No. Then you cannot improve it.

Yossarian: Why not?

Doc: There’s a catch.

Yossarian: A catch?

Doc: You can’t improve a process that can’t be improved.

Yossarian: Let me see if I got this straight. In order to improve a process, it’s got to need improving, and I can’t know it needs improving, unless I improve it.

Doc: You’ve got it! That’s the catch.

Yossarian: That’s some catch, that catch.

Doc: It’s the best there is!

On Tamed Processes – Craig Le Clair

The research shows that over the next five years, a new generation of processes designed from the outside in will replace the heavy packaged apps designed from the inside out that drive customer interaction today. I call these “tamed processes” to contrast with the hundreds of “untamed” processes that lurk in the shadows and dark corners of the more dominant packaged and industry-specific applications and struggle to cope with searching, filing, and entering data and cross-department human and organizational issues

On BPM and ACM – Scott Francis

When people have trouble listing which products are ACM, and which are BPM, and which are both, the “ACM” tag has some work to do to eclipse BPM. Even as it grows, it is perceived as part of BPM, not separate. Of course, BPM took a decade or more to come into its own. I don’t think it comes undone overnight.

On BPM and Process Mining – Anne Rozinat

I would counter by saying that process mining is more useful in flexible environments than for completely controlled BPM systems. One can learn a lot more because the actual process is invisible and emerges on the go. By observing what is happening, you can identify best practices and things that go wrong

On BPM and As-Is Process – Scott Cleveland

if you thought you could come up with the ‘perfect’ process – I guarantee that by the time you implement it, you will find new ways to improve it. So, the search for perfection is a wasted effort.

Most BPM implementations are still very basic process solutions, and most organisations have not yet reached the level of BPM maturity that we would like them to be at.

BPM projects rarely grow larger that a couple of business processes that provide a solution for a specific business pain.
BPM as a business process management platform across the enterprise has still not been widely adopted.

Most customer BPM requirements remain very basic.
The functionality provided by BPM software vendors in the market is more than enough for most customers (in fact some customer implementations require you to dumb down the solution, as not to scare the end users with over-sophistication)

It takes time for an organisation to get to the level of BPM maturity that enables you to bring in the bigger guns.

Complex Event Processing (CEP) is about identifying an issue caused by multiple process events, analysing its impact, and kicking off a new process to resolve the issue.

CEP identifies events and trends that require immediate attention that would otherwise go unnoticed in the structured world of BPM.
CEP uses a number of techniques: event-pattern detection, relationship detection, business rule detection, and uses real-time data to correlate against historical data.

Now, this all might sound like Case management or ACM,
but instead of enabling the end-user to dynamically route a process,
CEP enables the system to generate a subsequent process instance.

Take for example a cable TV call centre:
BPM would be used for structured processes, like customer credit approval.
ACM would be used for unstructured processes, like customer service complaints.
CEP would be used to find irregularities in the processes, like an escalation when multiple service complaints are raised from one neighbourhood.

CEP fits organisations with mature BPM programmes already up and running.
An organisation new to BPM would find it hard to see so far down the line.
CEP is currently embraced only by a couple of BPM vendors.
Unlike other areas (like ECM and ACM) that BPM has moved into, CEP is still an undiscovered territory.

Turns out that we belong to a professional elite.
Not only hard working professionals – Intelligent professionals.

It’s not me that said it…

Gartner have coined a new acronym: iBPMS
(Intelligent Business Process Management)
It seems that BPM Suites have now evolved into Intelligent BPM Suites

Now, not every BPMS can be defined as an intelligent BPMS. You need to embed BPM with event processing, real-time operational intelligence, CEP, BAM, message-oriented middleware and cloud messaging, otherwise you’re a dumb-dumb.

I’m unfairly poking fun at Gartner. The intent behind the new acronym is to emphasize the usage of more sophisticated BPM scenarios that can be used.

The problem with IBPMS is that most of the vendors focus on new customers.
New customers usually mean new BPM programmes, basics, keeping it simple.
There are not a lot of customers with mature BPM programs running.
(Take the usage of BPM simulation, for example. Most of the customers are not yet mature enough for simulation.)

Complex Event Processing (CEP) is about identifying the most meaningful events within the process events, analysing their impact, and kicking off a new process to resolve the issue.
CEP fits organisations with mature business process management platforms running.
A company new to BPM will find it hard to see so far down the line.

So, if you thought you were just good looking and have a great sense of humour, it turns out that you are also incredibly intelligent.
But you probably knew that already…

On BPM Predictions for 2012 – Derek Miers

So to the prediction: I think we already have a few BPM/dynamic case management (DCM) platforms that can do NBA on the fly; so the next step, which I expect to see in 2012, is to see this predictive capability dynamically combined with process mining technologies. These platforms will also need to leverage complex event processing (CEP) and social technologies to really make them usable. Of course, all of that needs to be delivered in a compelling and accessible package.

On BPM and the Olympics – Paul Lewis

It therefore leaves me to ponder why so many organizations today overlook simple business process applications which feature alerts, validations and notifications to solve their problems.

On BPM and Intelligent Business Operations (IBO) – Jim Sinur

I expect to see the advent of more IBO supported by an intelligent business process management suite(iBPMS) starting with leading edge organizations and eventually permeating many organizations over time. This is a real change for organizations attempting to leverage intelligent, agile and responsive processes.

On ACM – Deb Miller

When taking on new business policies, ACM provides the all-important balance between automating out manual inefficiencies that lead to frustrating customer experiences and using technology to improve the service provided by humans, all the while assuring transparency and adherence to regulatory requirements.

The 2012 BPM Trends are very similar to last year’s trends, with an emphasis on two areas: Social and Mobile. BPM is keeping up with new technologies, trying to find ways to enhance user adoption, but we are still not a midstream discipline.
We have still not reached “the BPM promised land”, but we are slowly getting there…

There are three main influences on trends in the BPM market

Trend Influences

Vendor Acquisitions
The acquisition of BPM vendors changes the marketing messages sent out.
Acquisitions by large middleware vendors bring middleware benefits to the forefront.
Acquisitions by document management vendors bring document management benefits to the forefront, and so on…
Apart from the changed value message of BPM – the solutions themselves actually change. The ‘workflow platform’ changes to a ‘workflow and document platform’, that changes to a ‘workflow and document and integration platform’, and so on.
Each acquisition changes the BPM messaging, adds another element to the BPM life cycle, adjusts the “right way” to do BPM…
Nothing wrong with that. Just part of the BPM evolution.

Analyst Background and Interests
The industry analyst’s voice has an enormous impact on trending.
Behind companies like Gartner, Forrester and others there are individuals – people with their own unique background and interests: Collaboration, Enterprise Architecture, and lately even one with a CEP background.
Each analyst changes the BPM messaging, adds another element to the BPM life cycle, adjusts the “right way” to do BPM.
Nothing wrong with that. Just part of the BPM evolution.

Marketing and Hype
Each of the vendors tries and find a competitive advantage.
It could be a technology, solution, or just hype. In any case they need to market this advantage. The more times it’s said and the more people that say it – the louder the message.
It’s human nature to believe that the next trend will change the whole world upside-down, and if you don’t join now – you’ll miss a great opportunity you’ll regret later on.
As soon as a new concept comes out (or a newly wrapped old concept) there is suddenly a great interest in it. Will this be the new messiah…
If the hype is good enough and enough people buy into it – it becomes a trend.
Each vendor changes the BPM messaging, adds another element to the BPM life cycle, adjusts the “right way” to do BPM.
Nothing wrong with that. Just part of the BPM evolution.

BPM Trends to Watch

Process Mining
Process mining has been around for some time, but lately been highlighted.
It still lacks the marketing buzz that other trends have (case studies showing where it has saved lots of money, or been sold for lots of money…). That said, if it does manage to show practical and financial benefits, it will be probably be the most interesting trend to follow this year.

CEP – Complex Event Processing
CEP is currently embraced only by a couple of BPM vendors.
The other vendors still do not see the added value of CEP. Unlike other areas (like ECM and ACM) that BPM has moved into, CEP is still an undiscovered territory.
CEP will probably start to grow in the next couple of years when the concept is clarified, the value is proven and the vendors feel it will give them a competitive edge.

Social BPM
Users desire same level of in innovation and functionality from their business applications as they get from their home applications.
It won’t take organisations long to cotton on to the potential: Twitter-like applications, collaboration applications. Social BPM, Enterprise social networking, Online real-time collaboration, Adaptive BPM, Enterprise Microblogging. They all have the same target and have great BPM potential. It will be interesting to see which area of Social BPM adopts it faster: process development or end user interface.

Mobile BPM
Most BPM vendors have simple mobile functionality (receiving tasks and notifications via emails and SMS notifications). The round cycle (updating the BPM system by mobile) is still lacking.
Missing standards in the mobile industry prevent a BPM solution from being used by ALL the mobile device types, all the mobile devices, operating systems, application platforms and versions.
That said, the biggest obticles of BPM mobile adoption in organisations are still the security issue (opening up a closed BPM system to the web) and user authentication (audit trail corruption).

Case Management
Case Management, traditionally part of ECM, is slowly becoming part of the BPM solution offering. If ECM vendors don’t start pulling their socks up – Documents, Record management, Collaboration will become part of the BPM offering as well.
Even without these, I foresee event processing, real-time operational intelligence and CEP to be added to the case management solutions in the near future.

Trends downgraded from last year

Open Source
Open Source has become part of mainstream BPM in the last year, no longer a niche. Just a vendor differentiator like Microsoft-based, Java-based, Open-Source-based.
Although the interest of the novel businesses approach has dwindled, the open source vendors are continuing to grow, and are required to show the benefits and practical benefits of their technology solutions.

Adaptive Case Management
The ACM acronym has been (and still is) an important part of the BPM debate.
Everyone understands the need for unstructured process, ad-hoc functionality to solve unpredictable events, but no one is doing anything about it.
Although ACM has been around for years – it still hasn’t caught on. Vendors haven’t changed their approach and are not hurrying to invest in creating this functionality.

Cloud
The cloud is going through an awkward period. Most companies are still not jumping onto the Cloud wagon, and Cloud has still not been proven as a cheaper, faster or better solution to deploy BPM solutions.
It doesn’t provide a different solution, a different methodology or even a different approach to BPM – just a different infrastructure platform.
The value of the hype has yet to be proved.

Long Term Trends (and personal wishlist…)

AI – Artificial Intelligence
Years down the line…
Making computers think more like people is an idea that persists. In the workplace, software already predicts customer behavior and machine failures on the factory floor. These capabilities will continue to evolve. AI’s strength is that it can uncover patterns and spot problems amid a mountain of data. That might translate into detecting future trends. The first step will probably be implementing AI in the BPM simulation modules.

BI
The strongest trend in the next couple of years will be Business (Process) Intelligence.
BPM vendors have the process design and process execution elements of the BPM life cycle pretty much nailed.
BI will become a competitive edge for BPM vendors. The difference will be between vendors that provide process design, process execution, and basic reporting – and vendors that provide cutting edge trend analysis, proactive, not interactive.
A system that tells you what needs to be done, instead of a system that just lets you search for the problem. The ability to be alerted of problems and solve them before they need to be escalated. Visibility and accountability.
There will be more requirements for reporting, drill-downs, analytics, KPIs, impact analysis.
It should come as no surprise to see mergers of BPM and BI vendors, OEMs and joint solutions in the next couple of years.
The biggest differentiator between BPM solutions, from a customer’s point of view – will be the quality of the BI offering.

Google
Google is one of the most innovative of the big companies currently in the market.
Any new innovation that Google comes out with will have an impact on BPM vendor offerings. Currently, when comparing BPM vendors offerings, one of the differentiators is Microsoft vs Java solutions. All the vendors have one eye open on Google.
Integrating with any Google future application (Search, Mobile, Email…) will be seen as giving the vendor a competitor edge.

And they’re off.
It’s Pirate’s Gold and Angel Eyes in the lead.
Dreamkeeper and Geronimo are close behind.
Each of them pushing ahead to gain an advantage.

It’s Pirate’s Gold first, Angel Eyes second.
Angel Eyes acquires Geronimo. What a move!
Angel Eyes slowly gains the lead.

Angel Eyes now first, Pirate’s Gold second.
The two BPM vendors are flying down the track.

But here comes Silver Treasure.
It’s Silver Treasure coming up on the inside.
Silver Treasure on the inside. Angel Eyes fighting back.
Silver Treasure and Angel Eyes battle it off here at the BPM racing track in Ascot.

Dreamkeeper is slowly closing the gap again with the leaders.
Will Dreamkeeper make it’s move now? It’s sprinting forward.
Oh my god, Dreamkeeper has faulted at the third obstacle.
Dreamkeeper is out of the race, Ladies and gentlemen. What a shocker!

Silver Treasure and Angel Eyes now battle it out.
Both using social and mobile to gain that needed edge.
Pirate’s Gold coming up behind in third.

Last stretch.
Silver Treasure and Angel Eyes are head to head as they dash for the starting line of 2012. The other BPM vendors are just behind.

And at the wire..